Is there enough land on Earth to fight climate change and feed the world? (MIT)
Real Climate Action: How Carbon Credits Are Saving Rainforests (Forbes)
‘Green’ energy needs metal. Can we combat climate change while reducing mining impacts? (USA Today)
China’s carbon policy aims for caps on total emissions by 2030: climate envoy (S&P Global)
Tackling heat electrification to decarbonize industry (McKinsey)
Time to Focus on the Human Element in Decarbonization (Maritime Executive)
The world’s ‘biggest’ legal case has just begun – and it is all about climate change (EuroNews)
Extreme climate events highlight the need for better water management (EEA Europe)
Companies That Don’t Adapt To Climate Change Could See Earnings Hit (Forbes)
We need metals for the energy transition, says Beacon CEO (YouTube)
Data centers are driving US power demand to hard-to-reach heights (Canary Media)
Transatlantic cable between America, Europe to boost energy transition to renewables (Interesting Engineering)
Six highlights of the global energy transition in 2024 (Ember-Energy)
What Energy Transition? ExxonMobil Plans 18% Production Boost By 2030 (Forbes)
A greener world, a troubled transition: The rocky path to renewable energy (TBS News)
The global shipping industry is on a path to net zero (The Guardian)
The Global Energy Transition: How Plastics And Chemicals Firms Can Adapt (Forbes)
Maersk’s Asia-Pacific president discusses decarbonization in global shipping (YouTube)
Hapag-Lloyd Follows Maersk with Large Methanol Supply Agreement from China (Maritime-Executive)
Rotterdam-Singapore green corridor completes bio-methane bunkering pilot (Lloydslist)
While a Trump 2.0 Era dominates discussions about the trends that will shape the maritime industry and global trade in 2025 and beyond, it would be a mistake to overlook the influence of the decarbonization of the maritime industry, advancements in AI, change in consumer behavior, and militarization of supply chains in the coming year. These less obvious but equally impactful factors are poised to shape industries and markets significantly.
The drive toward greener shipping practices is fundamentally transforming maritime supply chains. Spurred by regulatory frameworks such as the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) decarbonization targets and increasing customer demand for sustainability, the industry is advancing innovations in alternative fuels like hydrogen and ammonia, alongside energy efficiency measures.
By 2025, the IMO’s regulatory decisions on its long-term carbon emissions-reduction plan to 2050 will have far-reaching consequences. Although no single decision will instantly revolutionize the industry, the outcomes of these measures are expected to reshape the structure of international shipping, influence capital flows within maritime value chains, and significantly impact global trade and the economies of many nations.
The specifics of these regulations will dictate whether key investment decisions are made to initiate the supply of zero-carbon fuels and develop the necessary supporting infrastructure. They will also determine whether the first movers—companies that have already invested billions into decarbonization projects and driven voluntary initiatives like transparent green finance and climate-aligned chartering—are joined by a wave of fast followers or left with stranded assets as their efforts go unscaled.
On the other hand, if the IMO fails to establish a sufficiently robust and convincing emissions-reduction plan, the global shipping industry could face a fragmented future. A lack of global consensus would likely lead to a costly patchwork of regional regulations, undermining the concept of unified international oversight for a global industry.
Ultimately, the clarity—or lack thereof—around the maritime sector’s emissions reduction trajectory will define 2025 and set the course for the industry over the coming decades. Decisions will influence the pace of decarbonization and determine the future competitiveness and sustainability of global shipping.
As Donald Trump’s second term looms, the maritime industry is already bracing for the potential disruptions his return to the White House could bring. Even before his anticipated inauguration on January 20, trade lanes are adjusting to the expected upheaval of “Trumpenomics 2.0.” While campaign rhetoric often differs from the realities of governing, there is little doubt that Trump’s policies will be a defining force for global supply chains in the year ahead.
The more immediate consequences of a Trump presidency will be felt in trade policy, tariffs, and foreign relations. Increased reliance on tariffs as an economic tool could disrupt established trade routes, create near-term volatility in shipping, and potentially lead to mid-term demand disruption. This less predictable trade environment may further exacerbate global economic challenges, with far-reaching implications for maritime supply chains.
Sanctions are expected to remain a cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy strategy, much as they were during his first term. The “maximum economic pressure” campaigns, particularly against Iran, disrupted trade flows and created uncertainty in global markets. A similar strategy in a second term could extend to other nations, amplifying the unpredictability of global trade conditions.
One critical area to watch is the U.S.’s and China’s evolving relationship. Any significant shifts in this dynamic could lead to a reconfiguration of trade flows, with major consequences for shipping rates and logistics planning. At the same time, other trade lanes could see changes, influenced by Trump’s approach to ongoing global conflicts in regions like Russia and the Middle East. These geopolitical tensions will likely contribute to an already volatile trade environment, putting additional pressure on global trade. As a vital link in international commerce, the maritime industry will need to navigate these challenges with agility and foresight.
It is also worth noting that broader global trends—such as the ongoing transition to alternative fuels and the increasing demand for supply chain resilience—will continue to shape the industry’s trajectory. However, the interplay of these trends with Trump-era policies will likely create an unpredictable and challenging environment for maritime stakeholders.
The expected U.S. pivot on climate policies under Trump’s leadership will likely not derail the maritime industry’s crucial carbon reduction decisions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO), where Trump wields limited influence, will continue to drive global decarbonization efforts. Moreover, the momentum behind domestic U.S. clean energy initiatives and international climate action appears resilient enough to withstand another four years of a climate-skeptic administration. However, a U.S. retreat from aggressive green policies could slow investment timelines in key areas of the energy transition. For instance, while the U.S. will solidify its position as a leading producer of blue hydrogen, its market for green hydrogen is expected to shrink significantly, creating ripple effects for clean energy adoption worldwide.
In short, 2025 is shaping to be a turbulent year for global supply chains. For maritime businesses and policymakers alike, preparation and strategic agility will be key to weathering the uncertainties of “Trumpenomics 2.0.”
As above mentioned, 2025 will continue to push companies to rethink sourcing strategies, trade routes, and global partnerships.
Geopolitical conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine and the tensions in the Middle East, including the Palestine-Israel conflict and political instability in Syria, could lead to further adjustments in trade routes. Strategic trade corridors like the Black Sea remain highly vulnerable to blockades and attacks, disrupting trade flows, energy shipments, and agricultural exports. Additionally, control over critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, the South China Sea, and the Suez Canal is a growing concern, with potential military activity or blockades in these regions posing severe risks to global trade. The continued diversions from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which began in late 2023, have significantly reduced shipping capacity, disrupted schedule reliability, and exacerbated port congestion, adding to the challenges faced by global trade.
Energy geopolitics is also taking center stage as countries accelerate their transition to renewable energy. Securing access to critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel has become a top priority, with resource-rich nations such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Australia imposing export restrictions or requiring local processing. These measures are reshaping the global supply chain for batteries and other renewable technologies, further complicating the landscape for businesses reliant on these resources.
Similarly, agricultural commodities are under pressure, as geopolitical control over food production and distribution plays a pivotal role in global food security. Countries like Russia and Ukraine, which dominate global grain exports, have made supply chains in this sector particularly susceptible to disruption.
Emerging trade alliances and economic blocks are adding another layer of complexity. Regional trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) are reshaping trade flows in the Asia-Pacific region, creating alternative frameworks for international trade. Meanwhile, the BRICS group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is exploring strategies to challenge Western-dominated financial and trade systems, further influencing global trade dynamics.
At the same time, economic decoupling between major powers is becoming increasingly apparent. The rivalry between the U.S. and China is driving companies and governments to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing for critical technologies such as semiconductors, batteries, and pharmaceuticals. This shift has bolstered Southeast Asia as a manufacturing hub, with countries like Indonesia and Vietnam emerging as prominent alternatives. While China counters these shifts by investing heavily in its Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen trade ties with other regions, the European Union is pursuing its strategy to reduce dependence on both the U.S. and China, focusing on securing critical minerals, technologies and energy.
Compounding these challenges are sanctions, export controls, and evolving trade policies. Sanctions on nations such as Russia and Iran, along with export restrictions targeting critical technologies, continue to disrupt supply chains for essential commodities like energy and rare earth metals. Companies are navigating increasingly complex compliance requirements while seeking alternative sources for these inputs.
Moreover, fluctuating tariffs and uncertain trade policies further complicate global supply chains, driving up costs and requiring businesses to develop agile strategies to adapt to sudden changes in trade agreements and economic blocs. Ongoing trade disputes, such as those between the U.S. and China or the EU and the UK, add additional layers of complexity, imposing tariffs and non-tariff barriers that force companies to rethink their production and logistics strategies.
Companies will continue to invest in agility, diversification, and innovation to secure resilient and flexible supply chains and navigate trade route uncertainties, resource security challenges, and shifting trade alliances.
The ongoing pressures of inflation, labor shortages, rising costs in critical supply chain components such as raw materials and transportation, and heightened geopolitical instability are reshaping how organizations approach cost structures and sourcing strategies. These factors drive a shift toward more resilient, agile, and localized supply chain models.
One of the most notable trends in response to these challenges is the increasing emphasis on reshoring and nearshoring production.
Companies are relocating manufacturing closer to domestic markets or neighboring regions to mitigate the risks associated with extended supply chains. By shortening the geographical distance between production facilities and end markets, businesses can reduce vulnerabilities to global disruptions while improving delivery timelines and customer satisfaction.
Governments are playing a critical role in facilitating this transition by offering incentives to encourage the relocation of manufacturing operations. These incentives often take the form of tax breaks, subsidies, or favorable regulatory environments aimed at revitalizing domestic industries and creating job opportunities.
Many nations are prioritizing the development of strategic sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy technologies, which are viewed as essential to national security and economic competitiveness.
Countries and companies are also favoring trade relationships with politically aligned nations, or “friendshoring.” This approach minimizes exposure to regions perceived as high-risk due to geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, or regulatory unpredictability. By diversifying supply bases and engaging with trusted partners, businesses aim to enhance supply chain resilience while aligning with broader national security and economic objectives.
The move toward localized and politically aligned sourcing strategies also reflects a broader shift in global trade dynamics. Traditional globalization models, which emphasized cost efficiency and single-source manufacturing, are giving way to regionalization. This trend is being accelerated by advances in technology, which make distributed manufacturing and supply chain management more feasible, as well as by the need for greater agility in responding to rapidly changing market conditions.
Additionally, this transition aligns with broader sustainability goals, as shorter supply chains often result in reduced carbon footprints. By producing goods closer to their markets, companies can minimize transportation emissions and align with consumer and regulatory demands for more environmentally friendly practices.
However, these shifts are not without challenges. Relocating manufacturing operations requires significant investment in infrastructure, workforce training, and technological adaptation. Companies must also navigate the complexities of building new supplier relationships and ensuring compliance with varying regional standards and regulations. Despite these hurdles, the long-term benefits of enhanced supply chain resilience, reduced exposure to geopolitical risks, and alignment with national and global priorities make this trend a defining feature of the future of global trade.
By 2025, the rhetoric surrounding digitalization in supply chains may finally begin to transition into tangible reality. Historically, the supply chain industry has been risk-averse, with many players opting to wait and follow only when competitive pressures make transformation unavoidable. However, the coming year will likely see a few pioneering companies openly demonstrating the transformative potential of advanced technologies in their operations.
One key trend will be the more practical and credible application of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies across the supply chain. AI-driven systems, combined with big data and advanced analytics, are expected to revolutionize decision-making processes, optimize logistics, and refine demand forecasting. These advancements will result in more efficient and highly responsive supply chains, creating a significant competitive advantage for early adopters.
A noteworthy development in 2025 will be the rise of Agentic AI – a new generation of AI systems capable of acting autonomously to achieve specific goals without constant human intervention. While this technology holds immense promise, its successful deployment will require focused, strategic efforts to align its capabilities with real-world supply chain challenges.
Blockchain technology is also anticipated to make significant strides in 2025. Its ability to ensure transparency and traceability across supply chains by creating secure, immutable transaction records will address growing demands for accountability and ethical sourcing. Blockchain adoption will improve trust among stakeholders and support compliance with increasingly stringent regulatory requirements.
Another acronym set to gain traction is ERP—enterprise resource planning. ERP systems streamline day-to-day operations by integrating key business processes like procurement, inventory management, and production planning. They are expected to play a pivotal role in enabling digital supply chains. ERP systems will enhance operational efficiency and decision-making by centralizing data and improving coordination.
As global supply chains continue to evolve in the face of increasing disruptions and digitalization, the need for robust risk management strategies has never been greater. Events such as pandemics and natural disasters have highlighted vulnerabilities and underscored the importance of proactive measures like multi-sourcing, inventory buffers, and digital risk assessment tools. These approaches are now foundational to mitigating the impact of future crises.
However, as supply chains become more digital, the threat landscape expands, with cybersecurity emerging as a top priority.
Companies will continue investing heavily in advanced cybersecurity measures to protect their operations from ever-evolving threats. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are at the forefront of these efforts, enabling organizations to process large volumes of data, identify vulnerabilities, and neutralize threats in real-time. Combined with adopting zero-trust security models, these technologies ensure that no user or system is automatically trusted, significantly mitigating risks from internal and external cyber threats.
Geopolitical tensions add another layer of complexity, often manifesting in cyberattacks targeting critical supply chain infrastructure, such as ports, shipping lines, and logistics networks. The reliance on interconnected systems in logistics, shipping, and manufacturing makes these sectors prime targets for ransomware and other forms of cyberattacks.
State-sponsored cyber threats are a growing concern as nations increasingly use cyberattacks to disrupt supply chains critical to rival economies. Governments and international organizations are working to establish uniform cybersecurity practices to ensure compliance across borders, with a specific focus on sectors like maritime shipping, where regulations from entities such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are gaining prominence. Data sovereignty laws, including Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and similar evolving regulations worldwide are also becoming critical focal points for supply chain operations.
Risk modeling and advanced analytics empower companies to simulate potential cyber and operational risks, enabling them to develop informed strategies. Scenario planning and crisis simulations are becoming essential investments to test and enhance supply chain resilience. In critical sectors such as energy and raw materials, cybersecurity is prioritized to avoid disruptions that could have far-reaching economic and societal impacts.
Ports and logistics hubs, as critical nodes in global supply chains, will continue adopting robust cybersecurity protocols to secure both digital and physical assets.
Monitoring geopolitical developments, cyber threats, and natural disasters enables adaptive risk management practices. Organizations will also continue developing comprehensive response plans to recover quickly from cyber incidents and invest in redundant systems and backup infrastructure to ensure operational continuity during disruptions.
Sustainability will continue to be a transformative driver for global supply chains in 2025, reshaping operational strategies, stakeholder expectations, and long-term profitability. Companies no longer view sustainability as merely a compliance requirement; instead, it has become a strategic advantage that differentiates businesses, drives efficiency, and appeals to eco-conscious consumers and investors. Integrating sustainability into supply chain operations is poised to redefine industry practices and trends for the future.
One of the most significant shifts is the adoption of circular economy principles. Companies are increasingly designing products for disassembly and recycling, creating closed-loop supply chains that minimize waste and maximize resource efficiency.
This shift is supported by innovations like on-demand manufacturing through 3D printing, which reduces lead times, lowers inventory costs, and minimizes environmental impact by producing goods closer to their point of consumption.
Similarly, the transition to product-as-a-service models is reducing material consumption and extending product lifecycles, aligning economic goals with sustainability objectives. Alongside these efforts, minimizing deforestation and supporting biodiversity are becoming key priorities for organizations seeking to enhance their sustainability credentials.
Consumer demand for environmentally friendly products continues to grow, pushing businesses to adopt sustainable practices across their supply chains. This trend is not only driven by ethical considerations but also by the opportunity for brand differentiation. Companies leveraging sustainability to appeal to eco-conscious customers and investors are gaining a competitive edge, demonstrating that green practices are as much a business opportunity as they are an environmental imperative.
Net-zero commitments are further accelerating the transformation of global supply chains. Many organizations are setting ambitious decarbonization targets, necessitating a shift to renewable energy sources, electrified fleets, and low-carbon manufacturing processes. Green logistics is emerging as a cornerstone of this transition, with companies adopting cleaner fuels, optimizing transport routes, and investing in electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles to reduce emissions. Sustainable warehousing and green manufacturing practices are also becoming industry standards, with facilities powered by renewable energy and optimized for energy efficiency to cut operational costs and emissions.
The increasing demand for ethical, sustainable, and locally sourced products is fundamentally reshaping how companies manage logistics, warehousing, and distribution. This shift is not only driven by heightened consumer awareness but also by evolving expectations for speed, customization, and transparency in the delivery of goods and services.
Advances in digital technology have played a pivotal role in enabling these changes. The rise of personalization in marketing and product design, coupled with the growing prominence of the on-demand economy, has transformed consumer expectations. In the United States alone, consumers are spending nearly $60 billion annually on on-demand services, such as online marketplaces and transportation. These technologies empower companies to cater to individualized preferences, creating opportunities for customized goods and services. However, meeting these demands adds complexity to supply chain operations, particularly as companies must balance rapid delivery times with the need to scale in emerging markets.
As organizations seek to capture growth opportunities, many are targeting new customer segments, including populations at the “base of the pyramid,” where affordability and accessibility are critical considerations. Serving these markets requires rethinking traditional supply chain models to address unique challenges in infrastructure, distribution, and consumer engagement. At the same time, established markets are driving trends like sustainable sourcing and ethical production, creating dual pressures on supply chains to innovate and adapt.
To address these dynamics, many companies are moving away from traditional global flows of goods and services and toward more localized networks of buyers and suppliers, as previously mentioned. By 2025, this trend will likely accelerate, with supply chains increasingly shifting to national, regional, and local configurations.
The concept of supply chain militarization is increasingly shaping global supply chains and is set to be a defining trend for 2025 and beyond. This evolution reflects the growing intersection of economic priorities, national security imperatives, and geopolitical strategy in an era of rising global tensions.
Governments and businesses are adapting to a new reality where supply chains are no longer purely commercial but are also strategic assets integral to both economic stability and national defense.
At the heart of supply chain militarization is the weaponization of trade. Nations are leveraging control over critical resources, such as rare earth minerals, as geopolitical tools. These materials, essential for advanced technologies like electronics and defense systems, are increasingly used to gain strategic leverage in international relations. Similarly, export controls and sanctions targeting technologies such as semiconductors and advanced machinery are disrupting global trade flows, reshaping how nations engage in commerce.
Critical infrastructure protection is becoming a priority for governments worldwide. Investments in dual-use facilities—those that serve both civilian and military purposes—are growing, particularly in ports, rail networks, and energy grids.
The need for securing strategic commodities is driving resource nationalism. Nations are asserting greater control over vital materials like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, which are essential for energy storage, defense technologies, and renewable energy systems. Simultaneously, energy supply chains are being militarized to ensure uninterrupted access to oil, gas, and renewable energy components in times of conflict or trade disruptions.
Trade route protection is another critical aspect of this trend. Military presence in maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the South China Sea, and the Suez Canal, underscores their strategic importance, with nations forming alliances to secure vital trade routes.
Military involvement in civilian supply chains is also on the rise. Governments are integrating military logistical expertise into civilian operations during crises, leveraging their efficiency and resilience. Public-private collaborations are strengthening supply chains for critical technologies, such as semiconductors and communications equipment, ensuring they remain functional in emergencies.
The impacts of supply chain militarization extend beyond economics. They introduce heightened geopolitical risks as nations compete for dominance over resources, technologies, and strategic corridors. For businesses, navigating this militarized landscape requires a balance between operational efficiency, compliance with new regulations, and alignment with shifting geopolitical realities.
Volatility is set to remain a defining feature of the maritime industry and global trade in 2025 and beyond. For an industry accustomed to cycles of highs and lows, the last several years have been particularly turbulent, marked by unexpected supply shocks, geopolitical upheavals, and shifting market dynamics. The ability to navigate this volatility effectively will separate the resilient from the vulnerable, emphasizing the need for strategic discipline and foresight.
Historically, success in global trade has been about making the most of good times to weather inevitable downturns. However, the current environment of persistent uncertainty challenges even the most seasoned players. After five years of unprecedented disruptions—from global pandemics to geopolitical conflicts—the only certainty as we approach 2025 is the expectation of more unpredictability. In this ever-changing landscape, traditional forecasting models provide limited assurance. The next major shock could arise from economic, political, or environmental corners, further underscoring the importance of agility and preparedness.
Maritime stakeholders must remain vigilant, leveraging data-driven insights and scenario planning to anticipate and respond to emerging risks. Diversifying operations, optimizing fleet efficiency, and maintaining financial discipline will be essential strategies for navigating this volatility.
Success in this volatile environment will hinge on the ability to anticipate and adapt to the unexpected. The challenges may be daunting, but for those equipped with the right tools and a forward-looking mindset, the opportunities are boundless. The seas ahead may be rough, but they also promise immense potential for those with the right tools and mindset ready to navigate them.
Beatriz Canamary is a consultant in Sustainable and Resilient Business, Doctor and Professor in Business, Civil Engineer, specialized in Mergers and Acquisitions from the Harvard Business School, and mom of triplets. Today she is dedicated to the effective application of the UN Sustainable Development Goals in Multinationals.
She is an ESG enthusiast and makes it possible to carry out sustainable projects, such as energy transition and net-zero carbon emissions. She has +15 years of expertise in large infrastructure projects.
Member of the World Economic Forum, Academy of International Business and Academy of Economics and Finance.
